Washington County Action: Update 2 through 5
This afternoon I received a call from Bob Davis, the Washington County Administrator, to discuss our approaching the County on energy depletion issues. The call lasted nearly a half an hour (this is goodness!)
Initially he asked where we wanted to go with this and what kinds of interaction with the County did we seek? I explained that we wanted to partner with the County in 1) raising awareness of the the citizens and industrial groups about energy depletion problems, the implications and risks, and urge them to start preparations now; 2) defining some specific and measurable risk mitigation strategies at the County government level; 3) to support the County in stepping up to the task of being a central sustainability coordinating point for the incorporated and unincorporated municipalities (city governments) throughout the County; 4) to assist the County in taking a public position on an energy constrained future.
Initially, the conversation was guarded, with each of us trying to mentally figure out what the other was up to. He asked if I thought the County wasn't aware of energy problems and I replied that, quite frankly, it didn't appear so, given our inquiry with the County Public Information Officer who stated that he was unaware of the peak oil or energy depletion issue itself, or of any actions or information at the County level addressing the issue (see my blog from 07/01.)
Bob assured me that the County and the Board of Commissioners were very well aware of energy depletion problems (although they weren't categorized under the label of "peak oil", per se) and that several energy reduction measures were in progress. He cited commuter rail, light rail, and the new design of the town of Bethany as examples. He also indicated that the County had internally discussed the idea of establishing an Office of Sustainability (this is goodness), but that at the current time they didn't have any idea how, when, or what that office would really look like (badness). He also emphasized that the County simply doesn't have the staff and resources to address the effort right now. He reported that the County works regularly with Metro which serves as the regional coordinating body on transportation and sustainability issues.
We then had a discussion about some of the implications facing the County and its residents in the event of an energy shoock (a sudden drop in fuel availability or sudden price surge.) I gave examples: The enormous number of homes and businesses that depended upon natural gas for heat, and that if natural gas prices tripled due to geo-political actions or other sudden supply disruptions (likely within the next few years) that customers would simply be unable to pay the utility bills and this posed a serious risk to survival (in wintertime for example). The impacts of $5-7, or even $8-10 motor fuel on the general populace, including the basics of getting to work and back. The impacts on the marginalized populations of the County, particularly the high number of immigrants in the agricultural sector, who might be severely impacted by significant inflation. The impacts on the County agriculture industry if fertilizers became unavailable or too costly to use.
I asked if there was an "energy shock" mitigation plan on file with the County Emergency Management Office. Bob clarified that he wasn't aware of any. We discussed that this might be a good idea and I was given contact information for the guy in charge of the EMO, Scott Porter. He asked if we thought the Federal Government had a plan to take action. I summarized the report and audit from the GAO that finds the US Gov't has no plans and that this is a big problem. I suggested that it appears at present that mitigation strategies will be left to local govenments and citizens to handle. I directed him to our relocalize.net website to view that, and other relevant government reports.
We also talked about bio-fuels. Bob asked what I thought of them. I responded that they were certainly a bridge to our future energy model, but that we were actually trading food for fuel, and that was a moral dilemma that needed to be addressed. I mentioned the riots in Mexico caused by the price of tortillas skyrocketing because the US was buying so much of their corn to make ethanol.
I told Bob about our film screening on the 10th and infomred him that we had invited the Mayors and City Councils of all the cities in the County. He asked me to notify Noreen Lee with the Board to extend an invitation to them as well (which I will do today.)
We left the conversation on a positive note -- Bob promised to bring up the issue to the Commissioners to see if they 1) wanted to take a public position, and 2) what the next steps would be. I assured him that Washington County Peak Oil would do what it could to assist the County in raising public awareness, coordinating with other municiple entities in the region, and in helping define effective mitigation strategy and policy at the County level.
More later....
- 522 reads
- plunsfo's blog
- Login or register to post comments
Washington County Peak Oil
Want to join this group?
To get started, you'll need to create an account - or, if you already have an account on this website, login.
User login
Who's online
Online users
Comments
July 15th, 2007
Action with Washington County -3
On Tuesday, July 10th, WCPO provided a public screening of the film, "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash", in Orenco . One of the attendees of that screening was Commissioner Dick Schouten of Washington County. He travelled to the screening on his bicycle. I was impressed.
I was not only very pleased to see him attend but he also actively participated in our discussions following the film, weighing in on two very big issues facing Washington County, and relevant to peak oil -- Measure 37, and the West Side Bypass between I-5 and 99W. (Measure 37 affects prime farmlands and the West Side bypass invites extensive future exurban sprawl.)
Two days later I received an email from Commissioner Schouten. It said:
"I learned today that just a few days ago some very influential oil industry folks announced we were officially at global peak oil. Do you have details on that? (I heard this from one of a panel of distinguished speakers at a work shop sponsored by Metro and the Urban Land Institute Oregon/SW Washington District Council. The work shop was held at the MAC Club in Goose Hollow/Portland.
"If true that conclusion closely squares with your own expressed views this past week at Orenco. But one thing that I am not clear about is how imminent a major oil crisis might be, if we are now at peak oil. What are the probabilities of such an crisis happening in 0 -5 years, 10 years out or 20 or more? Seemingly all seems normal outside my window as I type and send this e-mail to you."
Well! Now we're talking! A dialogue is established. this is positive stuff! So I sent a [albeit] lengthy reply to Commissioner Schouten. And here it is:
Thanks for your reply, and again, thanks for coming to our meeting. I do appreciate your feedback and I agree with you that the film is quite long. It's exhausting -- I've watched it about ten times and find that the subject matter tends to make it feel even longer than it is. And yes, I have another film that is shorter, but does not pack the same wallop. It runs about 28 minutes and I'll loan it to you to review if you like.
Please forgive this lengthy reply. But this is important.
Yes, I have the information you asked for. I have attached three files for your review. The reports are also available via links from the Wall Street Journal and U.S. Government official websites, which I have included for you:
1. The IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report This is most likely the report you are referencing in your email as from the "influencial energy folks". This report was released this past week and raises very serious concerns. The IEA (International Energy Agency) is the international energy watchdog group, based in Paris, France, that reports to the governments of 26 countries, including the U.S., on global energy conditions. They have traditionally been stoic about a peak, and oil production supply problems in general. This time, however, they departed from their traditional stance and stated directly that current global production is in decline and will require an additional 3.2 mb/d (millions of barrels per day) of production just to stay flat, but that global demand is expected to increase from our current 86 mb/d to 95 mb/d by 2012 -- 5 years from now. That's a 13+ mb/d difference in terms of what is currently being produced or, said another way, a 15% new demand requirement that must be produced incrementally in the coming 5 years. Global discovery, production, and production infrastructure simply cannot accommodate such an increase.
The IEA indicates that they have even more serious concerns about above-ground factors -- lack of oil rigs and infrastructure to meet the demand, inadequate refinery capacity, lack of sufficient exploration equipment, lack of trained personnel, serious geopolitical factors in Iran/Iraq/Nigeria/Venezuela, weather, etc. Taking the whole picture into account, the inference they make is very concerning.
Prior to the report's release, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the IEA, in an interview with the French Daily Le Monde, stated, "If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem. Even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert." The report itself states, "oil looks extremely tight in five years time" and there are "prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade".
2. A report commissioned by the U.S. DOE two years ago entitled, "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management" (aka The Hirsch Report.) This report, in a nutshell, finds that the U.S. will require at least 20 years of intense and expensive preparation, in advance of oil production peaking, to effectively mitigate the risks and avoid very serious economic consequences. Based on report #1, above, we missed that 20-year window of opportunity. Without the 20 years of advance preparation, the report estimates two decades of serious liquid fuel shortages.
3. A report released three months ago by the U.S. GAO entitled, "Uncertainty About Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production". This report was an audit of the U.S. Governments' awareness and plans to address peak oil and its implications. In a nutshell, the report finds that the U.S. Government has no plans in place, very little awareness, and is unprepared for the eventuality of peak oil.
These three reports, and several others (available via links on our website) clearly indicate that we (the USA) are up against a wall without a plan at the time of production is peaking worldwide. Put simply: We're in big trouble. We need immediate and significant action and mitigation strategies. It doesn't appear the Federal Government is prepared to do that right now.
You are absolutely right in that, looking out your window everything seems fine. It is a conundrum. That is exactly why we organized Washington County Peak Oil -- to help address the issue, educate as many people as possible to the reality of the problem, and to facilitate initiating immediate action. Our core members have been aware of this problem for some time, have studied the issue extensively, and want to assist the County, municipalities, and the citizens on the issue.
As you digest the three reports above, I believe you will see the implications are overwhelming, and the avalanche is about to fall. It is not a pleasant revelation, but one I have already experienced and understand well.
As for the seriousness of supply not meeting demand; you can look at it this way...
If demand exceeds supply by any amount, then, for the first time in history we will have governments, corporations, and individuals competing for the limited produced resources, effectively bidding on the commodity.
It is my opinion that official rationing of fuel, due to fuel shortages, may occur sometime within the next two or three years in the U.S. I also believe that motor fuel will exceed $5 either by the end of this year or early next year. The shortfall will likely have extremely serious consequences in terms of both cost and supply for the transportation industry, the agriculture industry, and everyday commuters, not to mention inflation at every level of the economy. Half of the homes and businesses in Washington County depend upon natural gas, heating oil or propane for space and water heating; half the electricity in Washington County is generated using natural gas; and 95% of all fertilizers and pesticides in the agriculture industry are produced using petrochemicals as feedstock. Big problems are coming in the short term.
Portland created a Peak Oil Task Force last year -- I volunteered and assisted with that task force. I also wrote the original draft resolution which resulted in the Energy Depletion Resolution just passed by the City of Austin, TX. My experience with these two events showed that the process, from initiating the idea of a resolution through passing an initial resolution, took about a year in both cases. Then from deciding to establish a task force and the ultimate report of recommendations to the City Council takes about nine months longer. I submit that we simply don't have the luxury of that kind of time. This is why we approached the County rather than the individual municipalities in Washington County -- in the hopes that the County would provide centralized coordination and consistency across the municipalities to assure strategic economies of scale throughout the region, while at the same time coordinating with Metro.
Again, thank you Dick. Yes, we've got an immediate problem. Let's see how we can get the County up to speed on the issue as quickly as possible.
Peter Lunsford
Washington County Peak Oil
You know, in the movie we just screened, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett says, "I hope I'm wrong. I think everyone who understands peak oil hopes they're wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong. And I don't think they're wrong." I feel the same way.
More later... By the way, please add your comments to this dialog. It will help me understand how "on track " I am. OK?
July 20th, 2007
Washington County Action - 4
I will be meeting with Dick Schouten next week to discuss the beginning of our partnership with the County. The intent is to propose a call to action to develop an "Energy Descent Action Plan" (idea originated from the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan, an admirable work in progress in County Cork, Ireland) that covers food, education, transportation, youth & community, housing, economy and jobs, health, waste, and energy -- the idea being to develop a "vision" for what we want Washington County to look like in 15 and 40 years out, and then work backwards to define how to meet that vision.
At the same time, I will be presenting ideas for immediate consideration. These will include things like:
- Establishing a County Energy Depletion Programs Office
- Taking a public position acknowledging that a global plateau/peak in energy production is upon us and that significant action strategies must be developed, and mitigating actions initiated, at government, business, and citizen levels
- Coordinate closely with Metro on a regional cooperation strategy for energy depletion risks
- Coordinate closely with the individual municipalities throughout Washington County to develop a County Vision and cooperation strategy for energy depletion risks
- Sign the Mayors Climate Protection Agreement (U.S.) (even though we're a County)
- Endorse the World Mayors and Municipal Leaders Declaration on Climate Change
- Join ICLEI’s Cities for Climate Protection Campaign (even though we're a County)
- Sign the Oil Depletion Protocol
If you have additional ideas that you would like to contribute to this effort, please reply to this blog entry. I can't guarantee they will be included in our discussions with the County going forward, but this is a good opportunity to get your ideas into the mix.
I also received an email update from Bob Davis, the County Administrator, on Tuesday, July 7th. He noted that he had forwarded the documentation we had provided to the Board of Commissioners which resulted in Dick Schouten attending our meeting and screening of the film "A Crude Awakening" on July 10th. He confirmed that he had asked Scott Porter, the County Emergency Management Director, to touch base with us to discuss our concerns.
Bob also provided me with the text of a written interview provided to the Oregonian on the County's approaches to sustainability, conducted some time ago. I am including that interview here (below) for you to review. The following is a list of the questions asked by the Oregonian and the answers provided by the County. Clearly the County has taken several steps but appears to be in the infancy of sustainability planning.
While most of the approaches described in this interview are admirable, there are some other things that Washington County needs to address right away. We must remember that government authorities set standards and lead the way in so many things:
...and so on.
Again, if you have ideas to add, reply to this blog.
Thanks!
More later....
July 26th, 2007
Washington County Action - 5
I met with Washington County Commissioner Dick Schouten today. The meeting lasted nearly an hour and a half. It was a good meeting.
In our e-mail dialog over the past couple of weeks I have sent Commissioner Schouten a significant amount of information and I recognize that I have to be careful not to overwhelm him. I sent him the Hirsch Report, the IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report, and the GAO Report on Peak Oil. I have also sent him some news articles, and a white paper written by by Maj. Daniel Davis, of the U.S. Army, that does a nice job of summarizing the current peak oil situation. I also sent him some charts and graphs that show where we are in relation to oil peaking and threw out a few of the many implications of peak oil that might grab his attention.
So my first order of business during the meeting today was to guage Commissioner Schouten's level of understanding of the peak oil situation. My assessment is that, although the Commissioner see's peak oil as something that is probably an important issue, and is actually asking lots of the right questions, he hasn't quite assimilated the reality yet. I told him I wanted to begin the meeting by stating that we, the County and its citizens, were facing an EMERGENCY. We discussed some reasons about why taking action on the issue of peak oil should be of concern to the County, and the Board of Commissioners, the timing of the peak, the consequences of reaching the peak without advance preparation, and some about the impacts on the County's marginalized populations, commuters, business community and the agriculture industry. He listened, and he talked, and he asked questions. All good stuff.
He asked if we could get him a copy of the Peak Oil Resolution that was passed by the Portland City Council about a year and a half ago. I told him I would do better than that, and then produced our Washington County Peak Oil Action Proposal document. This document is a brief but formal proposal to the County that includes twelve recommendations, courtesy of Washington County Peak Oil. The "call to action" begins with the following statement:
The proposal also contains copies of the already-passed peak oil resolutions from San Francisco, Austin, TX, and Portland, and the eleven primary recommendations of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force which were adopted by the City of Portland. There is additionally some information about organizations and agreements mentioned in the call to action.
His comment on the document? -- we were proposing a massive effort for the County by any measure. My response was nodding my head slowly with a slight smile, and noting that big problems require bold actions. We understood we were asking a lot, and that this would really just be the first steps. I stated very clearly and soberly to the Commissioner, "This is going to be the biggest challenge that Washington County has ever faced, in its entire history." I informed him that we understood that we needed all the Commissioners on board and needed an opportunity to make our case.
Here's what he's pledged to do: He said he would ask the County Administrator to add us to the agenda at one of the Board of Commissioners scheduled working sessions for the purpose of delivering a formal presentation to the entire Board on peak oil, and why it's important to the County to take action. He suggested we would probably receive only 20 or 30 minutes for our presentation, but that we would be given face time in front of the entire Board of Commissioners. He will follow up with me with a schedule for that presentation.
He said it's completely up to us to make the presentation effective and persuade all the Commissioners. I replied that it was completely up to him to get us in front of the Commissioners, and prep them, so we can do that. We laughed together.
In the meantime, I guess we've got to put together the best presentation of our lives -- we've probably only got this one shot. Any ideas? Anybody?
The Commissioner, in a sort of sidebar discussion about our Groups' activities, suggested that we contact the Westside Economic Alliance and the Washington County Public Forum to see if they would invite us to give a presentation to their members. He provided contact information.
More later...
July 20th, 2007
Forgot to mention...
When I was out doing u-pick at a local farm recently, I struck up a conversation with the farmer. He shared that his farm is experiencing more and more theft of crops from his fields. This might be an isolated case, for all I know. Or it might be a trend with food prices rising so rapidly. I don't know if the county does any monitoring of this type of theft or facilitates farmers forums to discuss crop protection from theft, but this might be another area to concentrate some thinking about how to help prevent crop loss.
July 20th, 2007
Ideas
I am in favor of the 15 and 40 year plans to discover where we want to be. This allows us to determine what we are "for" and creates more positive energy.
I think there are other areas the county can look to influence. Please note that I am not censoring/sanitizing for political palatability. But floating ideas.
--identify the local guilds, handmade product clubs, and craftspersons in WA county. Encourage inclusion in local farmer's market events on a traveling/rotating basis to increase visibility and start rebuilding local economy.
--identify local neighborhood fruit trees and think about developing program to get owners to allow harvesting for food banks and local food systems. There is a program in Victoria, BC that was featured on Deconstructing Dinner whereby the volunteers are organized to harvest from neighborhood trees and 1/3 of the product goes to the workers, 1/3 to the homeowner, 1/3 to the food bank. Often more goes to the food bank if they owner does not want their full portion.
--school gardens program initiated. Please ready our extension agents (4-H, Master Gardeners) to assist.
--With Wa county being the 3rd largest ag. producer (in $ terms) in the state, it would be quite a statement for them to coordinate with Clackamas (2nd largest), to ask the Gov to find out the average age of our farmers/growers. Nationally, our farmers are 55 years old and getting to retirement age. This does not afford much time for us to rebuild and coordinate critical knowledge transfer. We need a statewide action plan here, of which WA Co. needs to be a major player. Who will fill the need? Will our (in debt up to their eyeballs) youth be able to afford to purchase these farms at the asking price? Or will we allow more corporate consolidation?
--Meals on Wheels and Home/Community Based Care. The AAA needs to be informed that they need to think about what they are going to do to meet the needs of the county's senior and disabled populations. HCBC is one of these nice outgrowths that can be attributed to cheap energy. For example, the client employed provider programs and meals on wheels are likely to be among the first to feel the stress of fuel prices. What happens when minimum wage CEPs and volunteer drivers are unable to afford gasoline? Or the Federal government implements gasoline rationing?
--Easing restrictions on home-based food businesses. I can make and give, as I recently did, dinner to a friend's family while they faced medical issues. But the second someone offers me 1 cent for "payment", it becomes the government's business. I have to take days of food safety classes and have a bureaucrat come out to my house to inspect it. These regulations will no longer work in the future we are staring at. I'm not suggesting they get thrown out. Rather, let's find some middle ground. For example, in Ohio I have heard (need some research here), that a person/household can produce 80 meals a month without the government needing to be involved.
--Food waste recycling. We won't be able to afford to throw our nutrient rich table scrap into the landfill any longer.
--Food Preservation. Again, the extension service is critical and needs to be engaged more fully.
--WA county libraries. I realize the county doesn't run these local libraries. However, perhaps the Commission could encourage them to begin moving away from developing the pop culture portion of the collection (from DVDs, romance novels, celebrity gossip magazines) to make sure we have the texts and resources we will need in the future. The local guilds and garden clubs would be good groups to engage in assessing current collections and anticipating future needs.
--Plan to balance in-fill with urban farming. Here in Tualatin, we have this old school site that is going to go toward a senior center and more houses. We have zero community gardening in this town. Again, not a county issue. However, we have several large pieces of public land which we need to consider in a coordinated fashion. We also have several large, single family, privately held parcels. For example, on Avery Street we have 6-7 houses that when put together have about 5 acres and are surrounded by more tightly developed neighborhoods. If there were some kind of legal entity that could be established with the neighbors encouraged to sell to, the fences could come down and we could have an large urban farm. It would be great to save some of these larger parcels for farming rather than let them go patchwork into development. I think a lot of these property owners would welcome the opportunity to save their parcel permanently from infill--or save it for 50 years or 25 years, etc. I'm not suggesting we be anti-development. I'm suggesting that we engage in strategic development.
--Trees/vegetation removal on lands we're developing. We might need to take a balanced, strategic approach to protecting edibles (trees and bushes) from being bulldozed.
--People moving closer to work. I worry that if we do not think about how to begin offering incentives for people to move/live closer to work, we will be less prepared for a shocks and supply disruptions. What will happen is that hotels will get overwhelmed. People will sleep in their cars and office couches. Storage facilities may have commuters who take up weekday residences using space heaters, people may gather in parks to camp for the night in their cars, etc. In other words, dangerous, unsanitary, unstable situations could result. Just the other day, the kids and I were at a park and another child struck up a conversation with mine, asking where we live, etc. The child shared with mine that the family's 4 siblings (with another on the way) live in their Suburban. Poverty in the suburbs is going to get worse and families more stressed. Keeping families together should be at the forefront of our minds and policies.
July 21st, 2007
Great start on these ideas!
I really like all of these practical ideas you've listed. Here is a further take on some of them.
Other ideas include motivating our residents to eat locally -- let's get an "Eat Local" movement sponsored for all restaurants, schools, government facilities, and employee cafeterias across the County, similar to the one described in the Kinsale Energy Reduction action plan. Certify restaurants, via the health department, with a designation of 1-5 stars (or tomato symbols, etc.) for the percentage of local foods served, with a sticker right on their front door to alert diners. Run contests on the best recipes and dishes using locally-produced foods. Surely fast food and restaurant establishments could purchase the majority of their meats, poultry, dairy, vegetables, lettuce, tomatoes and onions locally rather than having it trucked in from hundreds of miles away. Several restaurants in Portland have already begun to emphasize "local" cuisine to rave reviews. (I don't know what to do about pizza deliveries.)
How about the County passing an ordinance that stops the installation of natural gas lines in new housing developments, and requires LEED-level certifications for all new structures tomeet building codes? They could stop natural gas installations by requiring a $15K hook-up fee per residence, leaving the property owner a choice of spending $15K on a natural gas line versus installing much cheaper or more efficient systems for interior space and water heating. LEED building actually saves the homeowner or business lots of money in the long run.
How about adding a second fine to speeding tickets for "waste of a valuable natural resource"? Same for radical drivers.
How about asking (requiring) all food and grocery stores to clearly label every item on their shelves with a color-coded tag to indicate how far the food item had traveled to get to the store from its source, with ranges of 0-100 miles, 100-400, 400-1000, and over 1000? They could do this color-coding on the shelf price tag.
How about dramatically expanding local farmers market locations and frequencies? Today most areas are limited to a single location on a single day of the week, most of which require a drive to get there, and which may not fit into many local resident's schedules. Farmers Markets could also operate in the evenings and offer entertainment at their venues to attract local residents and get the community out of their homes and mingling together. Lots of parking lots are empty during the evenings. Large businesses could operate local farmers markets on-site for their employees one or more days each week.
Our future transportation infrastructure must be designed on electrified public transportation principles, with systems that encourage people to use them. Such incentives would include the ease and convenience of getting to and from such transportation pick-up/drop-off points from their homes. An example of an anomaly -- the Beaverton Transit Center currently has no public parking for commuters. So essentially the only way to get there is to have someone drop you off at the station (meaning two round trips to the station versus one) or by taking a bus there from another location. If connecting buses run only once every 30 minutes, or worse, or if connection times exceed ten minutes, it just isn't convenient and people will seek other options. Convenience is crucial to public transportation.
How about eliminating restrictions on the use of on-site renewable energy generation? There are a large number of homeowners associations and condominium CC&R's that restrict residents from installing solar panels, solar hot water systems, and other renewable types of energy. These must be modified.
How about having our utility companies lock in an energy price for ten years when someone signs up for all-renewable energy from the grid? The price could be higher than conventional electricity at the beginning of the term, but would become much cheaper (relative to inflation) over the ten year period. This option exists in Austin, TX and is quite successful.
How about Washington County investigating development of a geo-thermal power station to be located right here in the County -- or maybe two or three?
How about Washington County passing an ordinance that requires all food service businesses to give/sell their used cooking oil to local bio-fuel plants, rather than making it optional?
This is a great start to an important dialog. I would like to encourage all readers to contribute to the list.
July 16th, 2007
Fatih Birol -Exponential growth of Iraqi production?
Is it possible that they will be able to find enough reserves in Iraq to replace a 13m/bd shortfall by 2015?. And natural gas constraints by the end of this decade? Within 3 years?
July 16th, 2007
No, Iraq is not going to save us
Even if Iraq somehow pulled out of their civil war, rallied their people, and received intense international support, it is unfathomable to me that they could develop the infrastructure to properly discover and extract such massive amounts of oil in five years time.
Saudi Arabia, until last year the largest oil producer in the world, was pumping 12 mb/d. So this would mean an oil production infrastructure the size of all of Saudi Arabia's -- built and fully operating in under five years. uh, uh.
13 mb/d = 4.74 bb/y (billion barrels per year). The recently discovery "big" find in the Gulf, Jack 2, is only estimated to hold 3-15 billion barrels of reserves, and ANWR is only estimated to have 10 billion barrels of total reserves.
So the projected annual increase in global oil demand within 5 years will be equivalent to about 1/4 to 1/2 of all the Jack-2 reserves, or about 1/2 of all the reserves in ANWR. That's PER YEAR. And even the experts indicate that the maximum production they could expect out of such "big" finds such as Jack-2 and ANWR is 2-3mb/d. We would need four or five of these fields pumping at maximum to be the 13 mb/d demand increase.
Once you discover a field, it takes an average of 5 to 10 years to even start producing from it (building the pumping infrastructure, etc.) So, in order to get enough oil to meet global demand increases in five years, we needed to have about 4 or 5 proven ANWR or Jack-2 discoveries already, sitting idle, just waiting for us to start developing them for production.
In fact there are a number of new fields coming online in the next few years, mostly in the Middle East. But they just don't hold the capacity required.
July 2nd, 2007
yes!!
This has been a very inspiring read! Great stuff plunsfo!!
Clive
"We borrow the earth from our grandchildren. We do not inherit it from our grandparents."
July 14th, 2007
Southern Contingent
Sounds like a fantastic first start. I hope that once the county becomes more active, they engage the southern mayors and councils in a discussion about transportation. We have this $1.5 Billion dollar I5-99W connector project hanging over our heads and we need to engage in a frank discussion about the value of that project given the energy constraints we face.