Area poll indicates a swift erosion of economic confidence

Debbie Hauth and her husband have lived through recessions. They’ve lived with inflation.

But these times — what we’re living through right now — are different, she says.

“It seemed like we were standing on the edge for a long time,” says the school district supervisor from Beaverton, talking about the nation’s economy. “And the government kept trying to keep pulling us back. But they weren’t fixing anything. They were just putting a Band-Aid on. And now that we’ve fallen … I think we’re going to fall harder and longer.”

Debbie Hauth is hardly alone in her economic pessimism, or her angst.

Throughout Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties, people are worried about the economy, worried about the region, worried about their own family budgets. And responding — in overwhelming numbers — by changing how and where they spend money.

And more people think that things are going to get worse than better over the next two years.

Those are some of the most basic findings of a broad Portland Tribune/KPTV News 12 poll of 400 residents of the three counties over three days last week. And what most surprised longtime pollster Adam Davis in the poll results: how quickly the anguish has taken hold.

“I’ve never seen an issue come out of nowhere like this issue has,” says Davis, whose Portland opinion research firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc. conducted the Tribune/KPTV News 12 poll. Davis says his firm’s polling as recently as last year indicated only a hint of regional economic concern.

But today, people are suddenly worried about the skyrocketing costs of daily life — especially in buying food and gas. At the same time, Davis says, they worry about stagnating or declining values of what was once, for homeowners, a center of wealth: their houses.

“It’s a bit of a perfect storm,” he says.

Here’s an idea of how stormy, according to the poll:

• 76 percent of the poll’s respondents believe the nation is in a recession. Another eight percent believe the nation will enter one within the next six months.

• 61 percent of the poll’s respondents believe the region is in a recession. Another 12 percent believe the region will enter one within the next six months.

• 80 percent of the poll’s respondents were “somewhat worried” or “very worried” about the region’s economy.

• And 36 percent of poll respondents listed “the cost of things like food and gasoline” as either the “biggest issue” or “second biggest issue” facing families in the region today. For years, Davis says, that number remained at fewer than 10 percent of poll respondents.

“I haven’t seen anything like this — this quickly — in 30 years” of polling, he says.

And Portland-area residents are changing how they live their lives in response to the economy, the poll found.

• Three-quarters report they drive less to save on gasoline costs.

• Two-thirds report they “eat out” less and “bargain shop” more.

• And more than six in 10 are turning down the heat in their homes or cutting back on “entertainment and recreational activities.”

Debbie Hauth, one of the poll’s respondents, says she and her husband of 33 years, a pipe fitter, are doing that. “We are cutting back on weekend recreational traveling,” she says.

But Debbie and David Hauth bought their house 30 years ago. They have a comparatively small mortgage. “We’re fairly conservative with our money,” she says. “We’re not in a position where we really owe a lot. It’s not hurting us.”

But their four adult children, all of whom live in Beaverton, “are feeling it a lot more than we are — because they’re just starting out,” Debbie Hauth says.

One of their sons has a house and a mortgage; the rest “would love to own a house,” she says, but houses — even with the recent stagnation or even decline in house prices — are still too expensive. “There’s no possible way,” she says.

Meanwhile, their oldest daughter and her husband, with two children and high electricity costs, are using firewood from her parents’ wood pile to burn at their own home, helping to keep down their heating bills, Hauth says.

And, of her children, she says: “At least three of them have commented to me they’re just not eating out any more. They’re not driving as much.”

Howard Baker, a 64-year-old recently retired heavy equipment operator living in Forest Grove, says his wife, an in-home health care provider, has to drive for her job. But he finds himself “driving considerably less,” he says.

On the other side of the metro area, in Sandy, so does 72-year-old Charles Snyder, now retired.

He recently bought a 1994 Mitsubishi Diamante at auction — a larger car — “but we can’t afford to drive it,” Snyder says. “I’ve got a Toyota pickup. I don’t drive that either.

“Our economy is just going down the tube, I think,” Snyder says.

That feeling might be stronger among people who live near Snyder, in Clackamas County, according to the poll.

As pessimistic as attitudes seemed to be overall throughout the three counties, the pessimism seemed strongest in Clackamas County.

For instance, while 74 percent of people in Multnomah County, and 74 percent of Washington County residents believe the nation is in a recession, according to the poll, 82 percent of Clackamas County residents believe that.

And while 20 percent of Multnomah County residents, and 23 percent of Washington County residents, are “very worried” about the region’s economy, 35 percent of Clackamas County residents are.

“I think we can say people in Clackamas County are feeling more negative about things than in the other two counties,” Davis says. He says that may be a reflection of a weakening manufacturing and job base in the county, and of the cost of commuting to the central city from the county.

There isn’t much variation within the numbers among various age groups. In general, 18- to 34-year-olds were as pessimistic or troubled as those older than 55.

There was at least one noticeable difference within the numbers: Republicans were generally less willing to use the R-word than Democrats. While 85 percent of Democrats think the nation is in a recession, only 55 percent of Republicans do.

While the poll results did not specifically ask people’s income levels, Davis suggests that that result might be indicative of income. Comparatively more well-off Republicans might not be noticing economic troubles as much, he says.

Republican politicians may notice by November, however, suggest both Davis and his partner, Tim Hibbitts — as the economy and other issues may make 2008 a very difficult year for Republican candidates.

But politicians of all stripes also might take something else away from poll results like these, says Davis.

Local government leaders seem to be backing away in recent weeks from asking voters in November to approve new bond measures or new tax measures. They may be reading similar polls of the public’s current mood.

Davis says voters might be saying to government leaders: “‘Keep in mind we’re feeling squeezed right now. We’re making changes in our households. We expect you to be careful with money requests of us.’

“I think we already had a cranky electorate,” Davis says. “And I think you’re going to have even a crankier electorate. They are going to scrutinize any requests for money even closer than they ever have.”