Local Action for a Sustainable Tomorrow

Climate policy is characterised by the habituation of low expectations and a culture of failure. There is an urgent need to understand global warming and the tipping points for dangerous impacts that we have already crossed as a sustainability emergency, that takes us beyond the politics of failure-inducing compromise. We are now in a race between climate tipping points and political tipping points.

Summary
The extensive melting of Arctic sea-ice in the northern summer of 2007 starkly demonstrated that serious climate-change impacts are already happening, both more rapidly and at lower global temperature increases than projected. Human activity has already pushed the planet’s climate past several critical “tipping points”, including the initiation of major ice sheet loss.

The loss in summer of all eight million square kilometres of Arctic sea-ice now seems inevitable, and may occur as early as 2010, a century ahead of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections. There is already enough carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere to initiate ice sheet disintegration in West Antarctica and Greenland and to ensure that sea levels will rise metres in coming decades.

The projected speed of change, with temperature increases greater than 0.3°C per decade and the consequent rapid shifting of climatic zones will, if maintained, likely result in most ecosystems failing to adapt, causing the extinction of many animal and plant species. The oceans will become more acidic, endangering much marine life.

The Earth’s passage into an era of dangerous climate change accelerates as each of these tipping points is passed. If this acceleration becomes too great, humanity will no longer have the power to reverse the processes we have set in motion.

We stand at a time where we still have the power to make a choice. Only by dealing with the full scale and urgency of the problem can we create a realistic path back to a safe-climate world. Targets should be chosen and actions taken that can actually solve the problem in a timely manner. A temperature cap of 2–2.4°C, as proposed within the United Nations framework, would take the planet’s climate beyond the temperature range of the last million years and into catastrophe.

The loss of the Arctic sea-ice unambiguously represents dangerous climate change. As the tipping point for this event was around two decades ago when temperatures were about 0.3°C lower than at present, we propose a long-term precautionary warming cap of 0.5°C and equilibrium atmospheric greenhouse gas level of not more than 320 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide.

The USA’s leading climate scientist, James Hansen, stated recently that we should set an atmospheric carbon dioxide target that is low enough to avoid “the point of no return”. To achieve this, he says, we must not only eliminate current greenhouse gas emissions but also remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and take urgent steps to “cool the planet”.

These scientific imperatives are incompatible with the “realities” of “politics as usual” and “business as usual”. Our conventional mode of politics is short-term, adversarial and incremental, fearful of deep, quick change and simply incapable of managing the transition at the necessary speed. The climate crisis will not respond to incremental modification of the business-as-usual model.

There is an urgent need to reconceive the issue we face as a sustainability emergency, that takes us beyond the politics of failure-inducing compromise. The feasibility of rapid transitions is well established historically. We now need to “think the unthinkable”, because the sustainability emergency is now not so much a radical idea as simply an indispensable course of action if we are to return to a safe-climate planet.

Download Climate Code Red full report
http://www.carbonequity.info/system/download.htm&document_id=6

5 keys to a safe-climate future
1. Our goal is a safe-climate future – we have no right to bargain away species or human lives.
2. We are facing rapid warming impacts: the danger is immediate, not just in the future.
3. For a safe climate future, we must take action now to stop emissions and to cool the earth.
4. Plan a large-scale transition to a post-carbon economy and society.
5. Recognise a climate and sustainability emergency, because we need to move at a pace far beyond business and politics as usual.

5 keys to a safe-climate future
All bracketed figures are page references to "Climate Code Red".

1. Our goal is a safe-climate future – we have no right to bargain away species or human lives

No species has the right to consciously determine what proportion of all other species on earth should become extinct — as the compromise 2 and 3-degree temperature rise targets do. Lacking the collective will to act in a sustainable manner is no excuse (37-42).

Humans have created the looming catastrophe of global warming (21-23) and we have the capacity and duty to undo the damage and act in a sustainable manner, to cool the earth back to the safe-climate zone (38-39).

2. We are facing rapid warming impacts: the danger is immediate, not just in the future

Serious climate-change impacts are already happening, both more rapidly and at lower global temperature increases than projected (22-23). As the USA's most eminent climate scientist, James Hansen, told 15,000 of his colleagues at a conference in December 2007, significant "climate tipping" points have already been passed (8) (note 1 below). These include large ice sheet disintegration, significant sea level rises of up to 5 metres this century (9-10) and devastating species loss (17). The Arctic will soon be free of summer sea-ice (2-4) and the Greenland ice sheet is in imminent danger (5-7).

Temperature increases of 2 degrees are effectively already in the system (5), unless we act dramatically to cut emissions towards zero as quickly as humanly possible. Humanity will no longer have the power to reverse the processes we have set in motion if we pass the "point of no return" (27).

The IPCC reports are dangerously conservative (1-2, 18-19). A temperature cap of 2–2.4°C, as proposed within the United Nations framework, would take the planet’s climate beyond the temperature range of the last million years and into catastrophe (28-31).

3. For a safe climate future, we must take action now to stop emissions and to cool the earth

The tipping points for large ice sheet and species loss were crossed when we exceeded 300-350 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a point passed decades ago (26-28).

It is no longer a case of how much more we can "safely" emit, but whether we can quickly enough stop emissions and produce a cooling (54, 58) before we hit tipping points and positive feedbacks — such as carbon sink failure and permafrost loss (14-16) — that will take the trajectory of the earth’s climate system beyond any hope of human restoration (12-14).

Hansen notes that we either begin to roll back not only the carbon emissions but also the absolute amount in the atmosphere, or else we're going to get big impacts (note 1).

4. Plan a large-scale transition to a post-carbon economy and society

We face a multi-factor sustainability crisis and systemic breakdown (44-46).

The obstacles to implementing climate solutions are political and social in character, not technological or economic (53-58)

Speed is of the essence (39-40) in constructing a post-carbon economy as quickly as humanly possible (67-68).

An imaginary, large-scale programme (59) comparable in scope to the "war economy" or the transformation of the Asian "tiger" economies is required (62, 65).

5. Recognise a climate and sustainability emergency, because we need to move at a pace far beyond business and politics as usual

These imperatives are incompatible with the “realities” of “politics as usual” and “business as usual”. Our conventional mode of politics is short-term, adversarial and incremental, fearful of deep, quick change and simply incapable of managing the transition at the necessary speed. The climate crisis will not respond to incremental modification of the business-as-usual model. Climate policy is characterised by the habituation of low expectations and a culture of failure (47-53, 59-62).

There is an urgent need to reconceive the issue we face as a sustainability emergency, that takes us beyond the politics of failure-inducing compromise (63-66).

Even moderate goals (25-40% below 1990 by 2020) now require immoderate rates of change only achievable by shifting to an emergency footing (62).

As Ian Dunlop, the former fossil fuel industry executive and CEO of the Institute of Directors writes: "The stark fact is that we face a global sustainability emergency. But it is impossible to design realistic solutions unless we first understand and accept the size of the problem. “Climate Code Red” is a sober, balanced analysis of this challenge, unadorned by political spin, proposing a realistic framework to tackle the emergency. It should be essential reading for all political and corporate leaders, but particularly for the community. If we are to have a reasonable chance of maintaining a habitable planet, placing our efforts on an emergency footing is long overdue. We only play this game once; a trial run is not an option.' (74)

Note 1: For a survey of James Hansen's recent comments, see:
Beck, A. (2007) “Carbon cuts a must to halt warming — US scientists”, Reuters, 13 December 2007, www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN13267425
Borenstein, S. (2007) “Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?”, Associated Press, 12 December 2007, news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/33860636.html
Inman, M. (2007) “Global warming “tipping points” reached, scientist says”, National Geographic News, 14 December 2007, news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071214-tipping-points.html

Campaign for a sustainability emergency
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