Local Action for a Sustainable Tomorrow

Energy Watch Group
October 2007
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Oil-report.32+M5d637b1e38d.0.html

The Energy Watch Group consists of independent scientists and experts who investigate sustainable concepts for global energy supply. The group has been initiated by the German Member of Parliament Hans-Josef Fell.

CONCLUSIONS
The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006.
Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more
by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can
hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy
sources in this time frame.
The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will
be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily
life.
Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by
reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels. Global warming is a very serious problem.
However, the focus of this paper is on the aspects of resource depletion as these are much less
transparent to the public.
The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during
this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never
experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues
probably will have to change fundamentally.
The International Energy Agency, anyway until recently, denies that such a fundamental
change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. The
message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a
false signal to politicians, industry and consumers – not to forget the media.