PROVIDING EDUCATION AND RESOURCES FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: PREPARING FOR THE COMING SEA CHANGES FROM PEAK OIL* AND GLOBAL WARMING* in the DELAWARE VALLEY BIOREGION
* For definitions or to learn more about global climate change go to: www.realclimate.org ("Climate science from real climate scientists"). To learn more about peak oil go to: www.postcarbon.org (the parent organization of the ECLA PA), or do a Google search on the terms.
WHY WE NEED A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE WAY WE THINK
Global climate change (or "warming", as some call it), peak oil, and the global depletion of other resources are very real and serious issues. They are worthy of your attention because they are imposed by nature and will exert their influences whether or not you believe they are real. They have the power to change the way you live. They are already changing your life. For some of us it has already taken our life. There are few left who doubt that the war in Iraq is mainly about oil. The "triple threat" combination of global climate change, peak oil, and global resource depletion have the potential to cause catastrophic changes for all humans beings, and for the biosphere.
For many years this author has been carefully tracking these issues and the once subtle changes that they are causing. When I started my observations there weren't many people who understood the problems let alone noticed how serous they were. Today, the naysayers are members of a rapidly shrinking minority. This bodes well because a lot of people are now beginning to act or already acting with greater resolve. That is necessary. We'll need a lot of people, maybe most of the people, to do the work required to reverse these dangerous trends. There is hope.
As you read this we invite you to consider how you would cope if you woke up and found that the price of all petroleum fuels had risen to more than above $5 a gallon (or the equivalent for natural gas and other fossil fuels). Could you continue to live as you do today? Could you keep your homes and businesses as warm in the winter or as cool and comfortable in the summer? Could you afford to drive to work, travel to visit your parents, children, or friends? Could you still afford to drive to the shore or the mountains for the weekend? When petroleum prices continue to climb, and there is no longer any doubt that they will, will you be able to afford the food that is made with the aid of petroleum products? Will you be able to buy the vast majority of the stuff that you want that is made from, with, or transported to you with petroleum? If your answer is no wouldn't it be prudent to take steps to minimize the negative effects on your life, and your lifestyle?
THE EVIDENCE
The United Nations has been studying climate change for many years. The fourth of the reports they've issued is the most complete and best documentation they've been able to gather. It's conclusions have been reviewed and accepted by all of the many nations whose scientists contributed to it's creation. In that sense it's a somewhat political document. But a careful reading reveals the seriousness of the science and the data that couldn't't be bargained or negotiated into silence or edited out of the document.
The February 2, 2007 and subsequent releases of the several parts of the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC has opened a new chapter in our appreciation of global warming. It's a new chapter in our efforts to bring that process to a halt. As it becomes increasingly obvious that, "the future at once holds great peril and great promise", it may be an entirely new book. Indeed, David Korten holds that if humanity is to survive, it shall also require a new story.
The July 18 Draft Report from the US National Petroleum Council, "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy: A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas", once noticed by more folks than the readers of the Financial Times, will blown the lid off energy awareness. (For the full report go to: www.npc.org.) The Executive Summary is accessed from that page and the first three pages of the Summary are very instructive.
Paragraph two of the Summary is a masterpiece of understatement. "Over the coming decades, the world will need better energy efficiency and all economic, environmentally responsible energy sources available to support and sustain future growth." It can be argued that the goal of sustaining future growth is unsustainable.
The report lists five essential "strategies to deal with the problem: "The United States must: Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses."
When the looming problems associated with peak oil converge on rapidly rising demand from the giants of the developing world (China and India), while simultaneously intersecting with the exponentially escalating effects of climate change, we are in for challenges of historic magnitude.
Bear in mind that the caveats in the IPCC reports that projections for sea level rise between 20 cms and 40 cms for this century are subject to limitations of current computer models regarding the dynamic changes in polar ice melting that have been observed in recent years. Recent reports (see "news" below) indicate that the exception may be the rule. There is a growing body of evidence that humanity's "drift towards catastrophe" is speeding up.
How accurate have prior IPCC assessments been? RealClimate.org has answered as follows: "How good have previous IPCC reports been at projecting the future? Actually, over the last 16 years (since the first report in 1990), they've been remarkably good for CO2 changes, temperature changes but actually under-predicted sea level changes. Given that the frequent responses from ice researchers during the last three years prior to this, keep echoing "the melting observed was much greater than last year", we may be at or beyond a critical threshold with the cryosphere. The reports from the Arctic region at the end of this past summer have scientists so alarmed that they wonder if there will be enough ice left for them to study by the end of this decade.
Subsequent IPCC releases on details of the Fourth Assessment Report are equally alarming. The potential of negatively impacting regions and nations least able to cope is a matter for global security as well as great moral concern. The conclusions of the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change are equally sobering. It forecasts the need to spend 20 percent of global GDP if the Earth's inhabitants don't quickly end the now discredited practice of "business as usual". The good news here is that Stern calculates that we could solve the problems for between two and five percent of global GDP, a bargain at twice the price.
July 16, 2007 headlines proclaimed: UN warns high food prices mean it cannot afford to fight famine - Purchasing costs up 50% in past five years/Alert set to reignite debate over biofuels. The web of inputs and responses to peak oil and global climate change are already beginning to unravel.
WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT THIS
Some of us may want to reconsider the words of the old axiom, "we can choose to continue to be part of the problem or we can choose to become a part of the solution". To do nothing is a choice. We are confronted by a daunting task. There has ben an elephant in America's living room and we've been ignoring it. It is time to notice and to begin to "eat that elephant" in order to remove it. It won't leave of it's own accord. It is a task for all humans, and we do it one bite at a time.
Others, many of whom identify with and/or support the sustainability crowd, will need to stop "bargaining" over the situation and move to the fifth stage of response: Acceptance. We need this talented and growing community of activists to create examples of successful adaptation to the effects global climate change and peak oil.
Those of us who are actively involved in creating solutions; relocalizing, educating, shoring up our own energy and sustainability practices, will be well served by gearing up for a significant shift in public perception and receptivity to our ideas and efforts.
THE (so called) GREAT DEBATE ON WARMING - AND THE ANTIDOTE
There is virtually no independent peer-reviewed science by climate scientists on global warming that contradict the IPCC's unanimous conclusions. What controversy that exists is generally localized in the United States. This argument is rare to non-existent outside the US.
On December 3, 2007, at the Bali Climate Talks, Australia agreed to sign The Protocol isolating the U.S. as the lone holdout in the developed world.
Most of the remaining controversy is either blatantly political, financed by powerful interests (or handmaidens of those interests) whose profits are threatened by the data, or addressed and acounted for in the IPPC reports.
The attempts to sow doubt or refute the overwhelming body of evidence that exists is nearly identical to the long campaign to discredit the science on the link between smoking and cancer. As was often said to those disbelievers, ignore the evidence at your own peril. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of the campaign against global warming hurts all of us to the degree that it prevents YOU from acting.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAY:
Since at least half of the fossil fuel energy is wasted we can can spend the next years eliminating that waste in the name of fiscal responsibility. Eliminating half the waste will eliminate half of the CO2, many other greenhouse gasses, and the associated toxins. It will also save at least half of the money spent to buy that energy. By the time that process of eliminating waste is complete the evidence will be so clear that no-one will ignore it.
If you are motivated to become a part of the solution you can take a first step by eliminating ALL of the outmoded incandescent light bulbs in your homes and businesses. Why wait until the recent congressional energy bill mandates their abolition by______? If everybody in the US replaced just one of their bulbs we could shut down one large, polluting, coal-fired power-plant. I found thirty two in my house and when I replaced them my electricity bill went down.
According to the preeminent Rocky Mountain Institute, "Residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal lighting uses about 22 percent of all the electricity generated in the United States, and accounts for thirty-nine million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. RMI estimates that the technology already exists to cost-effectively save 50–90 percent of the power now consumed by lights in the United States. That would save $30 billion a year—enough electricity to retire 70 to 120 large power plants—and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by twenty to thirty-five million tons per year."
How's that for starters? There is a lot more that you can do without reading another section of this. If your refrigerator is over ten years old you can replace it with an Energy Star unit that is twice as efficient. On duty 24 hours every day of the year, your refrigerator is one of the biggest electricity user of all the household appliances.
The non-central air conditioner would be another likely target for replacement. In fact, every new appliance that you buy could be an Energy-Star certified unit at the top of those ratings.
Sealing air leaks between the inside and the outside of your home is another important target, especially when your climate is warm or cool. Air leaks can cut the efficiency of your heating and cooling system by 30% or more and make your home uncomfortable and drafty.
After sealing the leaks you can improve on the structure's insulation. The insulation that was recommended a decade ago is now regarded as woefully inadequate by today's standards. After all, we need a heater or air-conditioner only to replace that which is lost through air leaks and conduction through inadequately insulated walls, ceilings, windows and doors. Eliminate those inefficiencies and you can actually downsize or eliminate the heating and cooling systems.
Another possible improvement would be in getting a professional, certified, energy auditor to examine your home or business. The cost of auditing a home is around $400 and can save you more than ten times what you pay for it. The auditor can also determine the most cost effective options that your unique situation requires. You can find these at www.natresnet.org/directory/raters.aspx. This is a science-based computer driven program that is the most accurate and affordable way to do this.
BUILDING LIFEBOATS
It has been reported that as the Titanic was sinking there were people who held up brochures of the great ship pointing to the words "unsinkable" that were used to describe it. The begged their friends to come back on board. Those same people went down with the ship. Many of the lifeboats were launched half-empty.
Many of the doomed perished because of their faith in theory and the myth. Americans are known to be like that. We prefer our theories over empiricle experience. Are those of us living today cured of that failing?
The story of the Titanic is an apt metaphor for Spaceship Earth. The owners so believed the myth that they failed to equip Titanic with enough lifeboats for everyone even if they decided to use them.
These are the lifeboats we need to build. They will serve us well as the cost of petroleum spirals upward over the coming years. These are the lifeboats that will keep us afloat and safe while the less prudent sink, in increasing numbers, in the seas of debt.
The "lifeboats" we need to build are for our our children, and our grandchildren. We can most easily teach this by example. We are doing this for our communities and for the survival of humanity. If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses today the effects will increase and persist for a century or more. So it appears as if nothing short of an all out effort is likely to succeed. We, who have enjoyed the dubious luxury of the fruits of cheap oil, owe this effort to our children and the yet-born. Are you ready?
There is a simple "first step" that can be taken today. You don't even need to finish reading this to do it. We must eliminate every incandescent light bulb that we can. It won't be a big bite but it's easy and doable. California is "mulling" a ban on them. Europe plans to tax them.
We don't have to wait for that. If we all do this dozens of our oldest, coal fired power plants become unnecessary. You'll still have plenty of light. To get that to happen we all must act. Just do it.
IN THE MEANTIME....
In February of 2007, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell announced an $850 million "energy independence strategy" to cut greenhouse gasses and save consumer's $10 billion in ten years. On December 14th, the Pennsylvania Senate approved a $250 million version that fell far short of what was needed to move Pennsylvania into the ranks of states leading in the production of renewable energy. Rhode Island, with 9% of PA's population spends far more than that.
Missing from that proposal is a plan to help low income families, most vulnerable to skyrocketing energy costs, afford the added costs of energy efficient technology. We propose that $150 million be added to the original plan for those who can't afford to buy the technology they need to cut their energy bills. A round, billion dollars would have been more appropriate given today's new realities. Never before has the expression, "we are all one" been so meaningful and true.
The only hope for resurrecting this plan, or elevate the House version, is for those of us who care let our desires be known to our political representatives. It is keenly important that we become actively engaged in the political process. Democracy is not a spectator sport.
Those of us who live in developing countries will do well to leapfrog over the blunders of the industrialized west. You can choose to go straight to "go" (that's a Monopoly game term) and build energy efficiency, Factor Ten engineering, and biomimicry into all of your works. Of course, there well may be a responsibility lying in wait for those of us who've long enjoyed the fruits of energy so cheap we can (and do) waste it. We could help developing nations quickly achieve energy efficiency by more freely sharing our technology and experience. The waste and pollution all stays on this same planet that's shared by all. Those of us riding in the first-class section cannot long ignore the disaster that's more rapidly unfolding in the economy zone on this ship.
I apologize to those of us who are dependent on organizations like the United Nations for survival. I pray that we can find a way to increase our financial support until we can provide the financial and technical resources to help you learn to fish these troubled waters.
I am beginning to envy those of us who are traditionally able to survive, and whose people have survived for ages, in harmony with the land and seas. You have much to teach us. I pray that we have the capacity to learn. I also pray that we don't further blow, parch, flood, or melt your ecosystems so that you can continue to thrive and be examples of the values of simple living. There is a growing trend toward "voluntary simplicity" among those of us living in the first-class section. This small, socially conscious and responsible segment of our culture is forgoing conspicuous consumption, keeping up with the Jones', and ignoring the 3000 or so advertisements urging us to consume our way to the grave.
THE STORY OF STUFF
On December 4th, a wonderful new video on the link between consumerism and environmental degradation and resource depletion was launched by Annie Leonard, Coordinator of the Funders Workgroup for Sustainable Production and Consumption. It is called The Story of Stuff and you can see it and download it free at www.storyofstuff.com. I urge you to break away right now and spend delightful twenty minutes watching it. It's very funny, light, and RIGHT ON! Annie's giving it away so you can share it with as many people as you'd like. It could help you put this holiday season in a clearer perspective.
GROWING A USEFUL "LIFEBOAT" ACADEMY:
As we continue to develop and "fit out' the Earth Charter Lifeboat Academy of PA we'll proceed with setting up our school and online resources. William Marston AIA LEED PA is Dean of our Academy. Our primary area of influence and operation is the Delaware Valley. Our name reflects a deep connection to the United Nation's Earth Charter Initiative (www.earthchartercitizens.org). Their local Energy and Climate Working Group supplied key personel for this venture. We expect that the synergy and symbiosis of these two proven organizations, along with the others, will prove to be valuable and interesting. We hope they will be as educational and useful to you as they are to us.
The Energy Coordinating Agency is a private, non-profit corporation dedicated to ensuring that low and moderate income people have access to safe, affordable and reliable sources of energy and water. ECA works to develop a sustainable energy future for the region through energy conservation and renewable energy. ECA is a leading organization promoting sustainable living in Philadelphia especially among low-income households. Over the years they have been generous with their help to this "outpost", the Earth Charter Energy & Climate Working Group (our earlier incarnation) and Warminster Township's, now disbanded, groundbreaking Energy Advisory Committee (EnAC).
Their "for-profit" division, Smart Energy Solutions (SES) is a leading regional agency for energy efficient advice, weatherization, solar technology, conservation, and installations. Give them a call at 215.988.0929 when you want to take your next step in becoming a part of the solution.
Other important resources can be found at the Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org). For those of us involved in advisory or policy making, their "Community Energy Workbook" is a valuable tool, along with their improved, online "Community Energy Finder".
The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (www.acee.org) is another essential resource. They publish and frequently update a reasonably priced "Consumer Guide to Home Energy Savings" that is a must for all of us who don't live on sailboats. remote retreats that are off the grid, or cardboard boxes. Those of us who aren't yet living in a box will do well to follow the AC triple E's advice on energy efficiency. "There but for the grace of God go we". Mortgage foreclosures are up by 50% in many places, and rising.
DELAWARE VALLEY DEMOGRAPHICS:

| Title | Author | Created | Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS IS WHAT PEAK OIL LOOKS LIKE | Larry Menkes | Sun Dec 16 2007, 4:54pm | 0 | |
| PA Electricity Rate Cap Due to Expire in 2010: Consumers Will Suffer | Larry Menkes | Mon Oct 1 2007, 7:54pm | 0 | |
| LESSONS FROM "COLLAPSE: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" - An Overview Relevent to Relocalization | Larry Menkes | Tue Jun 12 2007, 6:53pm | 0 | |
| SUSTAINABLE HOME RETROFIT PROJECT | Larry Menkes | Wed Jan 3 2007, 6:50pm | 0 | |
| It May Not Be Too Late: A year-end perspective from Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin | Larry Menkes | Thu Dec 28 2006, 7:28pm | 7 | |
| Energy Efficiency vs. Adaptation: A heirarchy of strategies? | Larry Menkes | Sun Oct 29 2006, 12:54pm | 0 | |
| 85% of Americans Agree US is Addicted to Oil according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press | Larry Menkes | Sun Aug 27 2006, 4:15pm | 1 |

| Title | Source | Created | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUNNING ON EMPTY | Mark Hertsgaard, The Nation, April 24, 2008 | Thu May 1 2008, 10:02am | 0 |
| Wallace Broecker on Climate: The Bad News and Some Hope | Larry Menkes, ECLA PA, 4/15/08 | Fri Apr 18 2008, 10:34am | 0 |
| Shell Oil CEO Predicts Oil Shortage Within Seven Years | Staff, Energy Bulletin, January 25 | Sun Feb 3 2008, 8:45pm | 0 |
| Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million | Bill McKibben, Washington Post, December 28, 2007; Page A21 | Mon Jan 7 2008, 3:15pm | 0 |
| The Story of Stuff Premiers to Rave Reviews: Proves Value as Relocalization Tool | Larry Menkes, Earth Charter Lifeboat Academy, PA, 12/25/07 | Thu Dec 27 2007, 11:37am | 0 |
| MAGLEV WIND TURBINE | Staff, Triple Pundit, November 29, 2007 | Wed Dec 12 2007, 7:58pm | 0 |
| Matt Savinar (LATOC) Predicts Peak Oil Will Lead to End of Life As We Know It. | Matt Savinar, Life After the Oil Crash. net (LATOC) , November 9, 2007 | Sun Nov 11 2007, 3:03pm | 0 |
| Unexpected Growth in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide | Staff, ScienceDaily, October 23, 2007 | Sat Nov 10 2007, 4:05pm | 0 |
| Developing Urban Ecovillages: Toward Eco Cities - upcoming event | Bill Marston, Green Village Philadelphia, 08/26/07 | Mon Oct 15 2007, 5:39pm | 0 |
| Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts | ANDREW C. REVKIN, New York Times, Oct. 2, 2007 | Tue Oct 2 2007, 6:47pm | 0 |
