Shane ONeill and Dan Bashaw members of London PeakOil Group, a postcarbon outpost like SB
 

----- Original Message ----- From: Dan Bashaw To: postcarbon-lo@lists.riseup.net Sent: Thursday, December 07, 2006 10:43 PM Subject: [p-c l] London and Natural Gas Supplies

Hi PCL list members;

Hm... I just ran across the scariest picture I've seen all year: North American Natural Gas Production Curves, projected over the next few years, with a massive production collapse projected between now and 2010.

Check it out at: http://europe.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618.

It raises the following very interesting dilemma:

“Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn't hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?”

Now I realize that this is not news to many of you, (See: http://www.highnoon.ws/) but the immediacy of the production collapse was news to me!

Since moving to London, I've been struck with how unusually dependent we are on natural gas in Southern Ontario: I'll bet over 95% of homes here are gas heated, and the few that are not use electric heat, with at least some of the juice generated in gas-fired plants. I have not seen a single oil furnace since moving here, and the place we bought our wood stove from said 98% of their stove and fireplace installs are gas, not wood or pellet.

North American natural gas production cuts of 50% within three years (if the stats are roughly accurate) don’t mean ‘expensive gas’, they may mean ‘no gas’, depending on how the politics of NAFTA and competing regional distribution demands play out. I wonder whether 50% cuts would even allow the current pipeline distribution system to stay filled and pressurized.

The post and comments at The Oil Drum is pretty technical, but is a good starting point for discussion. Some questions to ponder:

1. Are the facts incorrect, or am I mis-interpreting them? Do we really have only 1000 days 'til the heat goes out in much of Ontario?

I believe the facts to be correct because of several issues remember the spike in NG during the summer - it was due to US power stations running on gas consumming so much gas in any single moment (reason = air conditioning) 2006 is the first year when you see 206 new power stations opened up and consumming gas- this never happened before and they need the gas to make the electricity- consider for a moment that Florida now has no oil or coal power plants - they have all been closed and even knocked down- they need the gas. The 206 plants was part of Bush's first policy in the White House and they have only come on stream in the past two years the amount of gas aplliances has soared and so has gas furnaces- as replacement to oil in many cases in the London area (reason= house insurance if you have an oil drum for storing the oil) the wastage has reached excessive levels- I mean quite literally we have soared in our use of NG

1. Can the natural gas distribution system continue to function under this level of deloading?

No, and this is why we though it prudent to form the Post Carbon Group in London, as London is a weird place - she has no form of power production and is within the catchment of fuel sensitive cities. We wanted to push an awareness program and this has begun... the next stage is to instgate the Community Energy Plan.... remember Council were offered a report on Peak Oil but they declined needing to sanction it... as such it is business as ussual for this city... so there will be problems... as for the decline, if cities do not recognise this issue then they are commiting the public to very quick hardships- I believe that rather than funding the replacement of light bulbs we should be showing people how to use less gas.

1. If this projection is accurate, why isn't everyone involved in gas distribution and emergency planning freaking out big time?

an act of calm denial, again it has to do with awareness- the worst for the denial are actually the gas workers and furnace installers, they say there is no problem. The problem begins with the politicians- Elizabeth May has been the only politician to date to actually be aware of it and wanted to raise the issue if she had been elected, as for the other Ferderal candidates in the recent election- none of knew nor cared.

1. What mitigations are possible for London as a whole?

since doing Energuides for the region- I have stopped recommending gas appliances, rather I would like to see people save the money for geo-thermal The US just purchased $29 Billion of NG from Quater a couple of weeks ago and it is due to statrt coming into the States by 2008- only problem is that they do not have the ships or the LNG ports, as such Nova Scotia will be a point of access, and we are building that facility as I write Get off big gas, see if your gas appliances for cooking can be converted to propane and go solar for hot water or geothermal for heat and DHW Coal-derived ‘town gas’ is discussed at length in the comments at http://europe.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618.

1. What mitigations are possible at the neighbourhood and home level? How can you prepare your home for gas delivery disruptions that could last several weeks... or a full winter?

yes it is possible and this again is a reason for Post Carbon.... we have to get out and have the awareness program.... there are allot of ways to make one still live the same as before gas- as for disruptions - did you see Thunder Bay a couple of weeks ago- there was no preparaness for the disruption- people were asked to leave their houses. ... yet again I stress the need for Post Carbon to bring the awareness of this and the types of issues one will need to face I don't have any answers to these, but hope that you do... and that we can start discussing it now! at present all is ok, but do not use the EU as a comparision, they have gas lines to connect to, Ontario does not and as for town gas, it is not even a runner- we use too much. My preferred option is the exploration of co-gen

shane

Suddenly Feeling Very Chilly;

- Dan