Peak Oil Task Force in Bellingham and Whatcom County

On Monday May 5, 2008, the Bellingham City Council will vote on a Resolution to establish a Peak Oil Task Force. In the coming weeks, Whatcom County Council will consider a similar Resolution.

Why is this important? I'll borrow from Daniel Lerch, of the Post Carbon Institute to answer that question. If I had to sum up his book "Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty" in just a couple of paragraphs, it would be as follows.

“The issue is that we are likely entering a period of increasingly frequent and large fluctuations in oil prices and supply,” Lerch has said. "We have changing demand and supply factors, instability in oil producing regions, and inherent difficulties in forecasting oil production."

The proposed task force would primarily be about our community facing the long term challenges associated with Energy Uncertainty, and coming up with recommendations on how best to address these challenges.

The long term challenges include attempting to answer the following questions:
How will the global economy adjust?
How will this impact our regional and local economy?
How can our local municipalities set meaningful budgets?
How can our local municipalities make long range land use and transportation plans?
How can our local municipalities best serve its citizens and the local business community?

How will we be able to do all of the above with such uncertainty in the price of the most important material to the global economy?

Obviously there are aspects of this issue that need to be dealt with on a federal level, but as Metro Councilmember (Portland’s regional govt) Rex Burkholder said, “It’s local government that has the job of looking out for citizens’ interests on a day-to-day basis...Threats of major disruption of our oil supply, or skyrocketing costs for fuel, are direct threats to our communities. We have to respond. We can’t wait for leadership from Washington.”

Lerch: "Identifying and mitigating community vulnerabilities is one of the more important - if often unwritten - expectations we have of our local governments...Changes in a fundamental economic factor like the price of oil - or a fundamental environmental factor like average temperatures - can have unexpected system effects that are difficult to predict.

"...the challenge for municipalities is not to predict the future, but to approach the future with the right tools and the right information."

Below is how the local news media is covering the story.

The Bellingham Herald: City Council to look at gas-price effects
Goals include education and emergency Plan


NW Citizen article by Craig Mayberry: Peak Oil Task Force

See also previous discussion on transportation that included Peak Oil at NW Citizen:

The Joke Is On Us

Transportation Discussion Continued

See what Portland did, setting the template for Peak Oil Task Forces:
http://www.portlandonline.com/osd/index.cfm?c=42894

And a wealth of info about municipal planning for Post Carbon Cities

The Resolution and the accompanying Briefing Paper can be found in the city's pdf file of the evening's agenda:

ftp://ftp.cob.org/council/packets/2008/05_may/05/packets/05may2008_AB17942.pdf

 

 

 

 

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DavidM's picture

Public Invited to Discuss Oil Task Force

Public Invited to Discuss Oil Task Force

Council will hold two meetings today before vote

by Sam Taylor, the Bellingham Herald

WHAT: Bellingham City Council members will discuss and then vote on a peak oil task force.
WHEN: 1 p.m. today in committee and at the 7 p.m. council meeting.
WHERE: Council Chambers, City Hall, 210 Lottie St.

BELLINGHAM — Residents have at least two more chances today to talk about a peak oil task force. City Council members decided to hold off voting on the project at their last meeting.

Council members didn’t vote on a resolution to create the task force — though all signaled their agreement with creating the volunteer group — after Councilman Gene Knutson pointed out that the document hadn’t been discussed in committee.

Councilman Jack Weiss has proposed that an 18-member group study the effects of declining oil supplies worldwide, which could mean either no fuel for vehicles or increasingly skyrocketing gas prices...

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/102/story/414038.html

 

Higher gas prices are only the tip of the iceberg
Another View by Myron Wlaznak, Whatcom Independent
So much has been written these past weeks about rising gasoline prices... Let’s look at what the high price of energy in general and gasoline in particular will have on us in our little spot of paradise…The upshot of these rising prices is that we will have to live with each other for a long, long time before solutions to address our energy needs emerge. America’s brain trust is hardly a world leader in this area so we’d better get used to seeing a lot of each other – up close and personal. There you have it, a few things for the Neighborhood Planning Academy and the proposed Peak Oil Task Force to think about. For me, Tuesdays and Thursdays have become no driving days.
http://www.whatcomindy.com/oped_story.php?subaction=showfull&id=1210869770&archive=&start_from=&ucat=22&

Online video: Glenn Beck interviews James Kunstler about his new book ‘World Made by Hand’ 
Wwhat the world would be like with much less oil.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2008/05/14/beck.life.oil.cnn?iref=videosearch

We Were Warned: Out of Gas
CNN, Sunday evening, May 18th at 8pm
Documentary looks at how oil shortages could affect the U.S. economy.

Oil and Politics
By Richard Heinberg, Truthout
...It's understandable that our elected leaders would want to do something about the meteoric rise of gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices that are now bankrupting independent truckers and forcing many folks in colder states to choose between being able to stay warm and being able to drive to work. Yet, efforts like the ones just mentioned are based on a profound misperception of why oil prices are rising. The real problem is summed up in the phrase Peak Oil. Petroleum is a finite substance and we have reached the inevitable point at which it simply isn't possible to increase the rate at which we extract it from the ground. Most oil-producing countries, including the US, have already seen their glory days and are now watching output from their wells gradually dwindle. Only a few nations are early in the production cycle and able to ramp up the rate of flow.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/051408R.shtml

The Oil Nonbubble
By Paul Krugman, the New York Times
“The Oil Bubble: Set to Burst?” That was the headline of an October 2004 article in National Review, which argued that oil prices, then $50 a barrel, would soon collapse. Ten months later, oil was selling for $70 a barrel. “It’s a huge bubble,” declared Steve Forbes, the publisher, who warned that the coming crash in oil prices would make the popping of the technology bubble “look like a picnic.” All through oil’s five-year price surge, which has taken it from $25 a barrel to last week’s close above $125, there have been many voices declaring that it’s all a bubble, unsupported by the fundamentals of supply and demand.

…The only way speculation can have a persistent effect on oil prices, then, is if it leads to physical hoarding — an increase in private inventories of black gunk. This actually happened in the late 1970s, when the effects of disrupted Iranian supply were amplified by widespread panic stockpiling. But it hasn’t happened this time: all through the period of the alleged bubble, inventories have remained at more or less normal levels. This tells us that the rise in oil prices isn’t the result of runaway speculation; it’s the result of fundamental factors, mainly the growing difficulty of finding oil and the rapid growth of emerging economies like China. The rise in oil prices these past few years had to happen to keep demand growth from exceeding supply growth…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/opinion/12krugman.html

Stop Me Before I Fill Up Again!

by Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights

It is a supreme irony that a wealthy Bedouin should be playing the role of a tough-love drug counselor to the world's oil-addicted consumers even as he continues to be the globe's biggest pusher. It was not the intention of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah to take on such a role, but merely the bizarre consequence of his consent to plans by his oil minister to limit the country's oil production to no more than about 12 million barrels per day from 2009 onward.

It's a move that should have been on the front page of every newspaper and that should have led every news broadcast the day it was announced. The world's largest exporter, an exporter that every major oil-consuming nation had been counting on to boost production to at least 15 million barrels per day over time, had just told the world that it wasn't likely to get what it wanted. Since most of the public still has no inkling that we are approaching the peak in world oil production, the announcement came and went with little notice...

http://www.energybulletin.net/44395.html


 

DavidM's picture

Bellingham City Council Delays Vote on POTF

Thanks to Mel Hutto for reminding me to post a follow-up here.  On procedural grounds, the Bellingham City Council decided to delay their vote on the task force until their May 19th meeting. All of the council members expressed their support for this resolution, however. The County Council will also vote on May 20th.  We're hoping for a joint city/county task force to look at this problem.

Below - local media coverage. I recommend reading the entire 'Easy Oil' article by Tim Johnson in the Cascadia Weekly.

The Gristle: Easy Oil
by Tim Johnson, Cascadia Weekly, 5/07/08
…Peak Oil—Does it exist? Is it a local issue? Its existence admitted in the affirmative by keen observers like Chevron’s David O’Reilly and his fellow oil industry CEOs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2007 World Energy Outlook, and by more characteristically optimistic analysts in the U.S. Dept. of Energy, perhaps the situation is more usefully described as the "End of Easy Oil"—a condition where explorers and prospectors seek ever more fossil fuel reserves and find ever fewer, and find them in more hazardous areas of the world—whether hazardous due to climate, deepness or remoteness on Earth, or geo-political harshness.

…Peak Oil a local issue? Of course!—as we tailor our transportation and community planning to anticipate coming constrictions of supply or increased cost; as we modify our infrastructure to accommodate energy and consumption alternatives; as we manage risks from myriad economic challenges; as we do our part. Indeed, we may soon find that capital-driven, global-market economic models—like big-boxes—are unfit for that future, even as dinosaurs discovered themselves unfit to endure theirs. At the very least, we may find federal funds once ours directed elsewhere as the nation addresses these challenges.

With much of this in mind, advocates like Weiss and others propose a joint city/county task force to explore the impacts arising from the End of Easy Oil, and to prepare Whatcom County for circumstances that will inevitably disrupt our economy and society. A resolution was introduced but failed to pass this week, under concerns there hadn’t yet been enough public process to form the task force. We can expect the resolution to be chided by the chowderheads of the blogosphere—stable boys of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse—but all reasonable people should praise each effort of government to fairly address the future with forethought and perception...

Page 6 of this pdf:
http://www.cascadiaweekly.com/pdfs/issues/200819.pdf

City waits for committee look at oil task force
Bellingham leaders want to plan for expected decline in oil supplies
by Sam Taylor, The Bellingham Herald, May 6, 2008
BELLINGHAM — Approval of a task force to study the effects of potentially declining oil supplies and increasing fuel prices on the area hasn’t hit its own peak for City Council members just yet. Officials decided Monday night to hold off on approving a resolution creating an 18- member peak oil task force because some council members were concerned that the proposal had been introduced the same night.

"I’m an old stickler for procedure," said City Councilman Gene Knutson. "I guess that’s my age showing." Council members generally discuss such resolutions in committee, Knutson pointed out. He got the council to agree to wait until May 19 to vote on the proposed task force. All council members signaled their willingness to move forward but agreed on the process issue...
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/477/story/401375.html

DavidM's picture

Peak Oil in the Media

Just here with a few Peak Oil media tips.

Myron Wlaznak in the Whatcom Indy, and Richard Heinberg on Oil and
Politics on truthout.org.  On TV, the Documentary channel is showing an
Australian report on Peak Oil (next showing Sat. morning at 10:30am -
could be recommended to city & county council to watch), and CNN is
dusting off their "We Were Warned" special (not recommended). A short
James Kunstler interview is also available online (from CNN's Glenn
Beck earlier this week).

Higher gas prices are only the tip of the iceberg
Another View by Myron Wlaznak
So much has been written these past weeks about rising gasoline prices.
National politicians have myopically honed in on reducing the Federal
Tax on each gallon we buy, car manufactures aggressively advertise
their “fuel efficient models” and put the gas hogs back in the barn –
for now. One of the most unpopular presidents of all time tells us to
just hunker down because the economy is going to turn around. And the
media hype…well, what can you say about the media?
Let’s look at what the high price of energy in general and gasoline in
particular will have on us in our little spot of paradise…

…The upshot of these rising prices is that we will have to live with
each other for a long, long time before solutions to address our energy
needs emerge. America’s brain trust is hardly a world leader in this
area so we’d better get used to seeing a lot of each other – up close
and personal.
There you have it, a few things for the Neighborhood Planning Academy
and the proposed Peak Oil Task Force to think about. For me, Tuesdays
and Thursdays have become no driving days.
http://www.whatcomindy.com/oped_story.php?subaction=showfull&id=1210869770&archive=&start_from=&ucat=22&

Online video: Glenn Beck interviews James Kunstler about his new book ‘World Made by Hand,’  in which he describes what the world would be like without oil.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2008/05/14/beck.life.oil.cnn?iref=videosearch

Peak Oil?
ABC Australia documentary from 2006, now playing on the Documentary channel.
Next broadcast: Saturday morning at 10:30 AM Pacific Time (Channel 197, Dish Network)
Interviewees include Dr. Colin Campbell, Chris Skrewbowski, Robert
Hirsch, Dr. Sadad Al-Husseini, and Peter Jackson.  You can also view
the show online, with bonus material:
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1680717.htm

Oil and Politics
By Richard Heinberg
t r u t h o u t | Perspective
Wednesday 14 May 2008

On Tuesday, Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would halt
a US arms sale to Saudi Arabia worth $1.4 billion. The implication is
clear: no more war toys for the Saudis unless they agree to up their
oil output.

The same day, the House approved a Senate plan to suspend oil
deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in hopes of diverting
that oil to the market, thus lowering the pump price a tiny amount.

A week earlier, a handful of senators proposed a bill threatening a
trade dispute with members of OPEC if the organization doesn't stop its
"anti-competitive practices and illegal export quotas on oil."

It's understandable that our elected leaders would want to do
something about the meteoric rise of gasoline, diesel and heating oil
prices that are now bankrupting independent truckers and forcing many
folks in colder states to choose between being able to stay warm and
being able to drive to work. Yet, efforts like the ones just mentioned
are based on a profound misperception of why oil prices are rising.

The real problem is summed up in the phrase Peak Oil. Petroleum is
a finite substance and we have reached the inevitable point at which it
simply isn't possible to increase the rate at which we extract it from
the ground. Most oil-producing countries, including the US, have
already seen their glory days and are now watching output from their
wells gradually dwindle. Only a few nations are early in the production
cycle and able to ramp up the rate of flow...
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/051408R.shtml