What if climate change drives Americans across our border?
If one-tenth of 1 per cent of Americans got the idea of moving to Canada, it would represent 300,000 additional migrants, well beyond the current worldwide total of annual immigration to Canada. Two-tenths of 1 per cent makes 600,000. My point is a simple one: Even a tiny, fractional change in American migration patterns could bring enough migrants to challenge Canada's ability to accommodate them economically and incorporate them into our social programs.

Rapid population growth in regions of increasing climate risks (read Florida, Gulf Coast, Colorado) will provide the raw ingredients for another large-scale American migration. Whether it will become an exodus to Canada remains to be seen. However, given the new climate realities we face in coming years, these are exactly the types of previously unforeseen contingencies Canadians must start getting their minds around.

What we can be confident of is this: If Americans experience economic hardship or social instability as a result of climate change, and they perceive their governments are unwilling or unable to manage effectively, Americans households have shown through past experience they can, and will, respond by migration. Where each individual household goes in such a scenario will be influenced by such things as the household members' economic status, age, health, education, transferable skills and social networks. Undoubtedly, most would relocate within the United States. Expect a good number, however, to take a close look at Canada as a destination, based on our inherent cultural and economic similarities, and any new differences in socio-economic well-being that emerge.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070215.wcomment0215...

by Robert McLeman is an assistant geography professor at the University of
Ottawa. He has published several studies on the impacts of climate
change on human migration.)